新澳门六合彩内幕信息

It Pays to Explore in Times of Uncertainty

To Explore or Exploit? Fishing Vessel Records Show Trade-Offs

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Fishing vessel on stormy ocean with seabirds flying around it.
新澳门六合彩内幕信息 Davis research shows it pays to explore in the face of uncertainty, which is especially important in the context of global environmental change. (Getty)

When making choices, people tend either to go with what they know or try something new. We experience this trade-off every day, whether choosing a route to work or buying breakfast cereal. But does one strategy have an advantage over another? Researchers decided to examine this question by looking at fishing boat captains, who face this choice again and again when deciding where to fish.

To find out which strategy leads to greater success in the real world, scientists from the University of California, Davis, and their co-authors examined 540,000 fishing vessel position records from nearly 2,500 commercial fishing trips in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, along with their revenues. today in the journal Nature Communications.

鈥淚t looks like exploration pays off in the face of uncertainty,鈥 said co-leading author , a postdoctoral researcher in the lab of Professor James Sanchirico from the 新澳门六合彩内幕信息 Davis Department of Environmental Science and Policy. 鈥淭his is particularly important in the context of global , when disturbances such as storms and droughts are predicted to increase.鈥

Future-proofing our livelihoods

The study found that some vessels consistently explore new territory more than others and invest more time and resources into sampling new places to fish. In times of stability, exploratory vessels performed no better or worse on average than vessels that stuck with consistency.

鈥淚n relatively stable environments, we would expect that any gains from switching behaviors would usually go away, otherwise vessels would be changing how they fish,鈥 Sanchirico said.

But when boats were suddenly forced to fish elsewhere during a 2009 closure of popular fishing grounds in the Gulf, those with a history of exploration experienced significantly less impact from the disruption. That may be because the boat captains could draw from their history of exploration to select new grounds.

O鈥橣arrell suggests the findings may hold lessons for times of uncertainty.

鈥淥ne way in which we can future-proof our livelihoods is by exploring new options,鈥 O鈥橣arrell said. 鈥淭hat way, if our current options become unavailable or less attractive in the future, we can fall back on our knowledge of alternatives. Sharing our knowledge could make us even more resilient still, as we can draw from a larger pool of experience.鈥

The study鈥檚 co-leading authors also include Sanchirico of the 新澳门六合彩内幕信息 Davis Coastal and Marine Sciences Institute and the nonprofit Resources for the Future, and Orr Spiegel of Tel Aviv University.  Additional co-authors include Maxime Depalle from 新澳门六合彩内幕信息 Davis, Alan Haynie of NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Steven Murawski of University of South Florida, Larry Perruso of NOAA Southeast Fisheries Science Center, and Andrew Strelcheck of NOAA Southeast Regional Office.

The study was funded by the National Science Foundation (Coastal SEES Grant) and the National Academy of Sciences (Gulf Research Program Data Synthesis Grant).

Media Resources

Shay O'Farrell, Environmental Science and Policy, sofarrell@ucdavis.edu

Kat Kerlin, News and Media Relations, 530-750-9195, kekerlin@ucdavis.edu

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