新澳门六合彩内幕信息

COVID-19 Science Six Months In: What Have We Learned?

Vaccines Will Help, but Masks and Social Distancing Will Be Crucial for Many Months

Although COVID-19 science has raced forward, the pandemic is likely to have an enormous impact on our lives deep into 2021, even with a vaccine on the horizon next year, two top 新澳门六合彩内幕信息 Davis Health experts said this week on 新澳门六合彩内幕信息 Davis LIVE: COVID-19.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think we鈥檙e going to hit normal anytime soon,鈥 said Allison Brashear, dean of the School of Medicine. 鈥淧eople are expecting that one day they鈥檒l wake up and everything will be back to normal. That鈥檚 not going to happen, even with a vaccine.鈥

Brashear and Dean Blumberg, chief of pediatric infectious diseases at , provided a state of the pandemic overview Thursday (Sept. 24) as they answered questions on what we鈥檝e learned in the six months of COVID-19.

Among the major takeaways

  • They are hopeful a vaccine will be developed by 2021, possibly early in the year, but they don鈥檛 see it happening sooner safely. 鈥淭here is an intensive worldwide effort,鈥 Blumberg said. 鈥淪till, by the time you get the data meticulously analyzed, presented to the FDA, have the FDA meticulously go over the data, then manufacture the vaccine and distribute it, I just don鈥檛 see it being available before next year.鈥
  • A vaccine will not mean flipping a switch and making the coronavirus disappear. It will be more like turning the corner toward 鈥渘ormal,鈥 with months more of precautions against COVID-19 transmission. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 see a wave of the wand and we go back to how life was,鈥 Brashear said. 鈥淏ut the ability to get close to normal is in our power if we鈥檙e consistent about wearing masks and social distancing. We need to take responsibility for our own health and for the health of our community.鈥
  • Both experts are confident the current promising vaccine trials are being run safely, and they are hopeful the trials will produce a vaccine that will be effective across all communities and populations.
  • Researchers are still learning about how COVID-19 is transmitted, but science has proven that wearing masks and social distancing are the most effective ways to protect yourself and each other.

How far COVID-19 science has evolved

鈥淲e started from zero,鈥 Blumberg said. 鈥淎 lot of the advice we gave was wrong. Remember, initially we were saying don鈥檛 wear a mask, if you can believe that. We鈥檝e learned masks work. That鈥檚 a scientific fact.鈥

Despite early concerns about touching contaminated surfaces and research that showed the virus could survive for hours or days on some materials, that is not a major source of transmission, Blumberg said.

鈥淲e were worried about touching our mail or our groceries,鈥 he said. 鈥淲e鈥檝e seen businesses do a lot of 鈥榙eep cleaning,鈥 but a lot of that is for PR purposes to reassure the public they鈥檙e a safe place to go.鈥

But now research has shown the primary source of infections is respiratory, and that droplets 鈥 which only travel about six feet before gravity pulls them down 鈥 are the major carrier.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 why we mask and distance,鈥 Blumberg said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 still important to wash your hands and carry sanitizer, but that鈥檚 more effective against staph infections and other issues. We don鈥檛 think that鈥檚 effective against COVID-19.鈥

Other advances include understanding how to treat the disease. That includes the use of remdesivir 鈥 a treatment 新澳门六合彩内幕信息 Davis Health helped pioneer 鈥 and steroids, if given at the correct time. Providers have also learned much more about what supportive care is most effective, he said.

The state of the COVID-19 pandemic

鈥淚 consider this the relative calm before the storm,鈥 Blumberg said.

As people have gotten more consistent about masking and social distancing, coronavirus transmissions have generally been reduced, but only after huge summer spikes in California and across the nation when many people eased up their cautions. Some regions outside California are still increasing, but generally the trend is downward. For now.

鈥淏ut we鈥檙e entering the winter respiratory virus season,鈥 Blumberg said. 鈥淲e do expect an increase in cases through the month of October and a real increase during November. That鈥檚 what we鈥檙e worried about.鈥

He said cold weather drives people indoors, where they are usually closer together and the air flow is more limited.

鈥淥utdoors, there is basically an unlimited amount of air and that dilutes the virus,鈥 Blumberg said. 鈥淧lus, in winter, the temperature and humidity favor survival of the virus, so you can have enhanced transmissions.鈥

Flu season and COVID-19

Because this coronavirus is so new, there is limited research on COVID-19 and the flu, which has experts nervous.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 why it鈥檚 so important that people get their flu shot this year,鈥 Brashear said. 鈥淏oth are respiratory diseases. It鈥檚 going to be difficult to tell them apart.鈥

Blumberg said showed that patients who had COVID-19 and the flu at the same time had a significantly higher risk of dying than patients who had COVID-19 only.

The window for getting a flu shot lasts through October, and infectious disease experts do not have one ideal date to get a flu shot, but both Brashear and Blumberg said there is no real reason to wait.

鈥淥nce you get the shot, it takes about two weeks to develop full immunity,鈥 Blumberg said. 鈥淭rying to predict the exact flu season is like trying to play the stock market. I would say get your shot in October at the latest because you don鈥檛 want to risk missing when flu season starts.鈥

鈥淚f you can get it, get it now,鈥 Brashear said. 鈥淲e are having everybody at all the 新澳门六合彩内幕信息s get vaccinated now. That says a lot.鈥

Progress on COVID-19 vaccine trials

Both said they have been impressed with the safety and comprehensive approaches of the vaccine trials, and are proud that 新澳门六合彩内幕信息 Davis Health is one of the partners in a involving 30,000 people across the United States.

鈥淲e had over 3,500 individuals sign up to possibly be one of our 200 people in that trial,鈥 Brashear said. 鈥淭hey represented a diverse population across California.鈥

She cited a couple of the demographics from 新澳门六合彩内幕信息鈥檚 participation: about 30 percent Latinx and 12 percent Black.

鈥淭his is unheard of in clinical trials in having such a diverse population,鈥 she said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 really a demonstration of the strength of 新澳门六合彩内幕信息 Davis鈥檚 connection to the community and of how much everybody in the community wants to participate.鈥

Diversity in trials is crucial

A diverse group of trial participants is crucial for making sure the vaccine will be safe and effective for all populations, especially Latinx and Black communities, which have been hardest hit by COVID-19.

鈥淲e want clinical trials to represent the diversity of our country,鈥 Brashear said. 鈥淲e want to be sure the vaccine works for everyone.鈥

Trials like these require a large pool of participants, in part because that can speed up the timetable, and because researchers need to be certain about the results. Participants get either a vaccine candidate or a placebo, then go about their lives. They are not intentionally exposed to the coronavirus.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 why we need really large numbers,鈥 Brashear said. 鈥淲e watch people as they go to the grocery store and go to work in the natural course of their lives. If they happen to get COVID-19, then we look at their blood and at them carefully.鈥

Blumberg said that is also why the trials are spread across the country. 鈥淭hey need to be in areas where the virus is being transmitted,鈥 he said. 鈥淭he researchers have to be confident that the numbers are statistically relevant.鈥

He said researchers and regulators need total confidence the vaccine is safe, that it works and that it doesn鈥檛 cause even a rare serious side effect.

鈥淩emember, we鈥檙e going to give this vaccine to everyone,鈥 Blumberg said. 鈥淲e want to be sure we don鈥檛 make healthy people sick.鈥

The status of other COVID-19 knowledge

  • Over-the-counter treatments 鈥 鈥淚鈥檓 not aware of any evidence that over-the-counter supplements or treatments are effective in either prevention or treatment,鈥 Blumberg said.
  • The safety of airplane travel 鈥 鈥淚 think most airlines are following the health guidelines,鈥 Blumberg said. 鈥淚鈥檝e even started considering flying again, if there were anywhere to go on vacation. I think it鈥檚 relatively safe. But it鈥檚 still safer to drive.鈥 Added Brashear: 鈥淭he bigger risk is being in a small room with 20 people not wearing a mask who are eating and talking loudly 鈥 like in a bar or restaurant.鈥
  • Aerosol virus transmission 鈥 鈥淭he scientific evidence isn鈥檛 100 percent clear on aerosol transmission,鈥 Blumberg said. 鈥淭he primary transmission is droplets, but if it were only droplets, then wearing a mask and social distancing would be effective 100 percent of the time, and we know that doesn鈥檛 work 100 percent. However, focusing on droplets is still by far the most effective action.鈥

The long view

鈥淎s a country, we haven鈥檛 been really aware or supportive of public health,鈥 Brashear said. 鈥淣ow, public health is front and center. COVID-19 has brought science to the forefront and we鈥檝e come to understand how much we depend on science to be healthy.

鈥淚f there is a good thing to come out of all this terribleness,鈥 she said, 鈥渋t鈥檚 that we鈥檝e come to realize that our survival depends on staying ahead with science and partnering with science.鈥

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Rick Kushman, rjkushman@ucdavis.edu

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